Empirical Analysis of the Cyclical Fluctuation of Chinese Economy

Through constructuring an economic movement barometer system, this thesis makes a factor analysis according to certain procedures, and builds a compehensive score which can reflect the fluctuation of the economic cycle. Though the specific numbers of the comprehensive score in the forty-nine years from 1953 to 2002, the thesis tries to make a statistical descriptionof economic cycle fluctuation in China and summarize the change features. It will be helpful in exactly grasping the characteristics of current economic cycle fluctuation, and supplying theoretical basis for macro-regulation.