Modeling on the Factors Influencing Currency Demand in China
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摘要: 货币需求分析是货币政策制定中的一项重要内容,对货币需求进行分析是制定准确货币政策的重要依据。本文首先介绍了货币需求影响因素的基本内容,接着对货币需求变量的选择问题进行了重点讨论。然后采用2001年-2009年的季度数据,对影响货币需求的各项主要因素进行了整理和分析,并构建了以收入、利率、预期通货膨胀率以及股票市场市值等重要经济指标为解释变量的货币需求计量模型。并将数据带入模型计算,结果表明:各选定解释变量均对货币需求有影响,这些变量的共同作用决定了狭义货币M1余额的均衡水平。其中,收入与货币需求呈正向关系;利率与货币需求呈正向关系;通货膨胀与货币需求呈正向关系;而股票市场市值与货币需求则呈反向关系。同时,文章对建模研究的结果联系我国实际进行了分析。Abstract: Analysis of currency demand is an important part in the process of establishing monetary policy.It is the foundation of an accurate monetary policy.Firstly, this paper introduces the factors which influence the demand for currency, followed by the discussion of the choice of variables on the demand for currency.Secondly, there will be the process of managing and analyzing the main factors which have effects on the currency demand on the basis of every quarter's data from 2001 to 2009.The currency demand econometric model, which contains the income, interest rate, expected rate of inflation, stock market capitalization and other important economic indicators as the explanatory variable, has been established at the same time.The results of the analysis reveal that:all of the selected explanatory variables have effects on the demand for currency, the role of these variables together determine the balanced level of narrow currency M1.Among them, there are some factors, which are income, interest rate and inflation, have positive relation with demand for money.However, the relation between the stock market and currency demand is negative.Meanwhile, the paper provides the analysis combining the results of modeling and the circumstance of China.
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Key words:
- currency demand /
- factors /
- Regression Analysis /
- correlation
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