Defining the Leading Factors of Structural Deflation in China—Based on MSVAR Cumulative Impulse Response
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摘要: 2012—2016年间,我国PPI持续同比负增长走势,CPI则保持正增长,背离分化的结构性通缩特征比较明显,而2019年这种背离分化情况再次呈现。文章通过周期因素、结构因素、货币因素和国际因素四个方面构建出马尔科夫区制转换模型,借助累计脉冲响应分析其原因。研究发现我国结构性通货紧缩的国内主导因素是近些年我国产业转型升级,居民收入水平的提高对服务的需求提升比较快,服务业的快速发展对工业产生挤压;国际主导因素是美国长期的量化宽松政策导致我国金融体系产生的大量资金流入固定投资领域,加剧产能过剩抑制工业价格。宽松的资金环境在推动资产价格的大幅上升后会损害社会资本收益造成资本外流,资本的大量外流导致国内货币供应量的收缩和人民币的贬值压力,货币供应量减少又加剧通缩。Abstract: During 2012-2016, China's PPI sustained negative year-on-year growth, while CPI maintained a positive growth.Structural deflation features were obvious, which again appeared in 2019. Through the four aspects of cycle factor, structure factor, currency factor and international factor, this paper constructs the transformation model of Markov regional system, and finds out by the analysis of cumulative impulse response: the domestic leading factor of China's structural deflation is the transformation and upgrading of China's industry in recent years. With the improvement of residents' income level, the demand for services is increasing rapidly, and the rapid development of service industry is squeezing the industry;the international leading factor is the long-term quantitative easing policy of the United States, which leads to a large number of capital from China's financial system flow into the fixed investment field, aggravating overcapacity and restraining industrial prices. The loose capital environment will damage the social capital income and cause capital outflow after promoting the sharp rise of asset prices. The large amount of capital outflow will lead to the contraction of domestic money supply and the pressure of RMB devaluation, and the decrease of money supply will aggravate deflation.
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Key words:
- structural deflation /
- markov model /
- regime switching /
- impulse response /
- cumulative impulse response
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